[Ocaml-biz] The strategic future of OCaml for 2..4 years

[Brandon J. Van Every]

Ok!  Nice to have a list back.  Diving right in...

Earlier we advanced the idea that the clock is ticking.  Windows of
market opportunity do close.  We said, Python is one clock that's
ticking.  We said, OCaml needs to become popular before Python becomes
fast.

Unfortunately, the caml-list crowd simply isn't interested in marketing
or evangelism.  They are techies.  They aren't going to lift a finger,
they will simply leave the 'success' of OCaml to technological progress.
And, the rate of technological progress for the next 2..4 years is going
to stay the same.  It's not slow, but it's not fast either.  It's not
driven by money or anyone's desire for world conquest.  It's driven by
introverts randomly finding OCaml useful for their own projects.

I say 'random' because I see so many OCaml technologies in an early
adopter stage, with like 10 different home-brewed tools to do the same
job.  The current OMake discussion on caml-list really hits this point
home.  All these different cooks are going to run around making their
own broth, pretty much ignoring each other, not really advancing or
evangelizing anything.  Over time, people will glom onto one of many
possible solutions, reinforce it, and then sloooooowly standard
practices will emerge.  I think 'random' is a fair label for this
process.  We're not talking about a company that develops and mandates a
tool, nor any kind of official standards effort.

I don't know how many people are subscribed to this list, but I'm sure
it's a small number.  The number of people who discuss is smaller still.
The number of people willing to commit to *doing* something, even
smaller.  Heck, I talk a ton and even I haven't committed to doing
anything yet.  At least the understanding and the plans have gotten
better though.

We have to face the strategic reality that we're seriously understaffed,
and have a seriously unsupportive community for marketing and evangelism
efforts.  Given these realities, I'm wondering what goals we can set for
the next 2..4 years that we might actually be able to achieve?

I think the strategic reality is clear.  Python *WILL* achieve
performance before OCaml ever becomes popular, if Python performance *IS
POSSIBLE AT ALL*.  Only if Python is heading for some kind of
fundamental brick wall, will it be otherwise.

Equally clear, OCaml will take 5 years to reach Python's current level
of popularity.  We're talking strategic future here.  There is nothing
whatsoever we can do, tactically speaking, to change this.  We can only
hope that Python continues to squander its window of marketing
opportunity, and that Java and C# don't really improve all that much.

I wish it were possible to doll up OCaml and then sell it like hotcakes,
but that is sheer fantasy.  It is but a language, determined by the
slow, lugubrious nature of the language market.

So now I welcome your thoughts on what we're going to do, and why we're
going to do it.


Cheers,                     www.indiegamedesign.com
Brandon Van Every           Seattle, WA

When no one else sells courage, supply and demand take hold.